Good Morning. Iran just threatened $200 oil barrels. Nobody in the Trump cabinet saw it coming. We break down the Strait of Hormuz crisis unfolding now.
We also cover McDonald's $3 menu comeback, how AI is making you work more, and Tony Soprano's favorite lunch (forwarded this email? Join 523K readers).
TOP STORY TODAY
Iran Miscalculation?
The Trump administration underestimated how aggressively Iran would respond to U.S.-Israeli military strikes (NYT). Energy Secretary Chris Wright said days before the conflict that oil markets would see minimal disruption, a view shared privately by other senior advisers.
Iran responded by threatening commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil passes. Shipping in the Gulf has halted, oil prices have spiked, and the Pentagon acknowledged the response was more intense than anticipated. The U.S. military struck 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the strait.
Officials now scrambling for off-ramps. The Pentagon reportedly burned through $5.6 billion in munitions within the first two days. Rubio and Hegseth have outlined narrower war objectives than Trump has stated publicly, while some officials privately express concern over the absence of a clear exit strategy. Iran threatens $200 barrels.
McDonald's Goes Cheaper
McDonald's plans to launch "McValue 2.0" in April, featuring a menu of items priced at $3 or less and new $4 breakfast meal deals including a McMuffin, hash brown, and coffee. The move replaces its 2025 buy-one-add-one promotion and follows nearly two years of efforts to rebuild its affordability reputation.
Franchisees raised prices as post-pandemic inflation surged, causing many customers to stop viewing McDonald's as a value option. A $5 meal deal launched in 2024 and $1 add-on items in early 2025 helped reverse the trend, with lower-income consumers returning and affordability scores rising from 18% to 21% between 2024 and 2025.
Competitors are responding aggressively. Panera launched a $4.99 mix-and-match deal, and Domino's is pushing a $9.99 any-style pizza promotion. Restaurant industry executives broadly say value-focused deals are now permanent fixtures, with Applebee's reporting deals now represent roughly one-third of all purchases (WSJ).
AI’s Productivity Trap
New data from workforce analytics firm ActivTrak, covering 164,000 workers and 443 million hours across 1,111 employers, finds AI tools are increasing work intensity rather than reducing it. Email and messaging time more than doubled among AI users, while focused, uninterrupted work dropped 9%.
Researchers found AI creates efficiency gains, but that freed capacity gets immediately redirected into additional tasks. A separate UC Berkeley study of a 200-person tech firm reached similar conclusions, finding employees worked faster, took on broader responsibilities, and logged more hours after adopting AI tools.
Experts warn the trend risks cognitive overload and burnout long-term, even as productivity metrics improve short-term. Currently, 80% of workers use AI tools at work, up from 53% two years ago (Harvard).
▶ Tim Ferriss talks “filling the void” / problems of being too efficient [Podcast]
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TODAY’S LIFE ADVICE
Your Beliefs Are Holding You Back
Behavioral designer Nir Eyal argues success isn't about intelligence. It's about perseverance. Research shows successful people actually fail more than unsuccessful people because they keep trying.
Motivation requires three elements:
the behavior
the benefit,
and belief.
Remove any one, and motivation collapses entirely.
Positive visualization backfires. Athletes who visualize obstacles outperform those who imagine trophies. Planning for discomfort beats manifesting outcomes.
▶ Every human behavior stems from escaping psychological discomfort. Master that, and you unlock everything else.
Tony Soprano’s Gabagool Sandwich
Tony Soprano's beloved gabagool sandwich is a staple of Italian-American deli culture, the kind of thing you grab from a Jersey pork store without thinking twice (video).
Capicola (gabagool) — cured, spiced pork shoulder/neck
Crusty Italian bread or hoagie roll
Provolone cheese
Roasted red peppers
Olive oil drizzle
Salt, pepper, dried oregano
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Fun Links
Teenager-led billion-dollar AI startup [Blog]
Why hotels tuck sheets so tight [Blog]
Landman talks green energy problems [Video]
1973 SeaCamper: boat and camper [Video]
An illustrated guide of how Zippo works [Blog]
Larry Bird’s nephew: highlight reel [Video]
5 plants that can live in the bathroom [Post]