Good Morning. Brewers bet small, investors bet big on AI, and Team USA bets it can beat Belgium without its top scorer. Who's overextended today?
We also cover a fake ransom plot, Palantir's CEO on-air rambling, and Barry Ritholtz's rule to avoid never panic selling (forwarded this email? Join 523k readers).
TOP STORY TODAY
USA’s Replay Red Card
Team USA lost its leading World Cup scorer to a red card on Wednesday. After a multi-minute replay review, striker Folarin Balogun was ejected for stepping on a Bosnian defender's ankle, a call his coach argued was accidental and never a sending-off.
The Americans still won 2-0 with ten men, but the cost lands next round. Balogun is now suspended for the round-of-16 match against Belgium in Seattle on July 6, the team's toughest opponent yet, with no option to appeal the decision.
Fans noted the contrast with Lionel Messi, who went unpunished for a similar studs-down challenge earlier in the tournament, then scored a hat trick. Balogun joins Ronaldinho and Zinedine Zidane as the only players to score and get sent off in a World Cup knockout game. Is there a chance of repeal?
Economists: AI Warning
The world's top central bankers spent this week debating one question: is AI a boost or a threat to the global economy. At a symposium in Sintra, Portugal, several economists warned of serious fallout if the AI boom turns to bust (More).
The worry centers on leverage. An IMF director flagged that both borrowers and investors are heavily leveraged on AI bets. AI-linked debt now makes up nearly half of investment-grade issuance this year and 87% of all venture capital funding.
Not everyone is bearish. The Fed chairman said he sees greater prosperity ahead, calling this the first inning of the revolution. But the ten largest S&P 500 companies, mostly AI-driven tech firms, now account for roughly 40% of the entire index.
Small Beers, Big Bet
America's biggest brewers are betting on smaller beer. Sierra Nevada and Constellation Brands are expanding their lineup of "pony" cans and bottles, 7 to 9 ounce servings that undercut the standard 12 ounce pour, heading into the peak July 4 selling week.
The timing tracks a shift in how people drink. Domestic beer shipments fell 1.6% through April, and brewers see ponies as a way to court moderation-minded drinkers, parents, and the growing GLP-1 crowd looking for a smaller treat. Is GLP-1 use cutting into alcohol sales?
The format is not new. Coors introduced the first aluminum pony in the late 1950s, and Rolling Rock ponies were a hit in the 1980s. Constellation now sells roughly seven million cases of the mini Coronita each year.
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GET 1% BETTER
How to Slow Brain Aging with a Multivitamin
Dr. Steve Horvath built the first clock that measures biological age from your DNA. His research says you can slow aging with moves simpler than most people expect.
Take a daily multivitamin (the COSMOS trial slowed brain aging by 2.1 years)
Get a baseline epigenetic age test while you are still healthy
Treat social connection like diet or exercise, it shows up in your DNA
Attack inflammation, weight, and metabolism together, not one at a time
Your cells accumulate damage years before symptoms appear. Watch Horvath explain what actually moves the needle.
The Christmas Tree Portfolio, Explained
Barry Ritholtz manages $8 billion and says most investors lose money the same way: too many decisions.
His fix is a portfolio shaped like a Christmas tree.
Put 60-70% in low-cost index funds (the tree)
Use the remaining 30-40% for active bets (the decorations)
Check your portfolio once or twice a year, max
Delete the trading apps from your phone
One in three panic sellers never returns to the market. Watch Ritholtz break down the full system.
TRENDING
5 Stories
▲ Tesla driver charged with manslaughter after Model 3 hit Texas home at 73 mph, killing woman, 76
▲ Fake ransom note sender pleads guilty to harassing Savannah Guthrie's family during her mother's kidnapping case
▲ Cal-Maine and two rivals allegedly gamed "Wall Street of Eggs" to inflate prices Americans paid at checkout | Previous write-up
▲ Anthropic emails reveal how safety fight with Pentagon collapsed over AI weapons and surveillance limits
▲ Palantir CEO Alex Karp rambles nearly 20 minutes on CNBC, warning of an AI bubble | Nervous breakdown?
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